Every year it has become a ritual for bloggers to put forth their sage wisdom and offer a look forward into the year with predictions that are sometimes scary accurate and at other times well, off the rails. This year is no different and for Solutions Are Power we are focusing business technology predictions. Over at Grow Smart Business we are focused on small business predictions and with that, let’s get started….
Prediction #1 – The Appstore bubble will burst
If you don’t have an iPhone, Android, Blackberry or Palm device the concept of the App Store might be lost on you, but a few years ago we were wild about web widgets that went on our blogs and any other place. Last year when Facebook opened up their platform to application developers we saw the beginnings of this and Facebook apps took off. Apple launched the app store and things haven’t been the same since. However, I like to gauge bubble frothiness by whether it is on CNBC. As I write this post there is a special on the “App Store” marketplace so as I recall from the last special they had on the housing market about 6 months before that house of card collapsed was about if that market was ever going to see an end. CNBC has almost become a “jump the shark” moment in business ideas. This will get very heated into the summer but will start to have a saturation point and by the end of the year people will be worn out. There are only so many apps that people can have on their phones and only so many that can compete for their attention.
Prediction #2 – iTablet or iSlate Saves World
Well, maybe not that dramatic, but for all the hype and rumors there is something to this device and its potential for media consumption. We know something is coming because of the controlled leaks that seem to give Apple free publicity like no other company. One of the big reasons to do it is to test market reaction to pricing and various functions it is looking to use in the product. It happened like this exactly for the iPhone but the end product was similar but way off when it was finally announced. Where I do believe it will have impact is on the publishing industry. The e-books are great and this will be their year (more on that below) but they are limited and the form factor isn’t what newspapers and magazines need. I can absolutely see reading magazines and storing the Wall Street Journal and a few other newspapers that can leverage advertising (Apple just bought a mobile ad firm) and subscriptions.
Prediction #3 – Portable or “Pico” Projectors Become Usable and Widespread
You might have seen the ad with the phone that has a projector on it to show Avatar on a wall in the office kitchen. These mini projectors are called “Pico Projectors” and have been around for about two years. However, their low resolution and low lumens (can’t see in a lit room) made it more of a toy than a tool. However, with newer products the ability for business users with presentations to give these portable projectors are going to see tremendous growth this year and I am predicting by year’s end people will either have used one or own one.
Prediction #4 – This is the Year of E-Readers and E-Book Players
At CES this year, in between the 3D TV’s and talk of Apple’s iSlate, it was e-book crazy. Products like the Kindle and the Nook are the ones with the most marketing dollars there are many products coming in a slate format along with e-ink development hitting a new stride. We are going to see these products innovate and go from black and white to color to bring rich media content (books, magazines, comics, newspapers, etc.) to all platforms, not just dedicated single-function devices. People think this is going to genuinely threaten to upend the publishing industry within three year. I believe it along with slate devices will save it in the next 12-18 months.
Prediction #5 – Shopping Gets More Social
A few years ago, this rose up as a buzz word because people where adding the term “social” to everything like with did with “e-” 10 years ago. Companies like Kaboodle, Shopwiki, Woot and ThisNext have been working over the last two years to expand the shopping experience via social networking elements. This year is when I believe it really starts to take off. With geolocation, augmented reality, true integration of Twitter and Facebook into our lives the concept of real time and social is how we live. It naturally fits into how we shop.
Prediction #6 – Augmented Reality Hyped but Does Not Live Up to Hype
Ok, you might have heard of this term and the first thing that comes to your mind it “Matrix”. No there is no Red Pill or hot looking people in latex. However, there is a new way of looking at the world. Just like Alice through the Looking Glass. Except the looking glass it the camera on your cell phone. Augmented Reality is, according to Wikipedia “a live direct or indirect view of a physical real-world environment whose elements are merged with (or augmented by) virtual computer-generated imagery – creating a mixed reality“. People are gonna hype this through the roof. However, it will be clumsy, hard to use and hot have many applications, yet. This is a 2011 or 2012 technology but you gotta start somewhere.
Prediction #7 – Geolocation Services will be Hottest Technology of 2010
Last summer I finally got an iPhone and for the first time finally understood how cool having GPS built in for Geolocation. Over the Christmas holiday I finally got to really dive into Foursquare and was shown how Gowalla works. They are fun and I am interested to see how a business model will evolve. What I do believe will happen is with all the smartphones out on the market that Geolocation will be a driving force in applications as we leverage real-time information and look to connect with people in our social networks.
Prediction #8 – Broadband costs move toward $50 for 50MB
I agree Om Malik at Giga Om. Although he wishes this will happen, I truly believe that it will toward the end of the year. Carriers need more revenue and people are sucking up more bandwidth but demand faster speeds. Isn’t that the American Way? Faster, better, cheaper?
Prediction #9 – Twitter finally starts to make money
Yeah, right. This one is a prediction we all make knowing thinking won’t happen. However, I am confident that this year is going to be about putting out a premium service and business accounts. As for advertising? That is going to take some real sensitive testing. Making money this year, yes. Profitable? Maybe in 2013.
Do you have any predictions?
Leave your predictions below in the comments or tell me how awesome or awesomely awful with my predictions.
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